What horse do you think will win the Kentucky Derby this year?

I am holding off betting for just a little while longer while watching track conditions. The showers have ped as of now and regardless of light showers earlier in the day the track remains fast and if it stays that way I will be betting Nehro and Archarcharch. My favorite as of now is Nehro to win but I think Archarcharch will make a good show if he does not expend too much energy from his #1 post position at the start to avoid being shuffled back in the pack. Otherwise, if the track gets sloppy wet, my favorite to win is Soldat.